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Joined 3 years ago
Cake day: June 9th, 2023
  • From my youtube understanding the 737-800 doesn’t have a RAT, instead using a battery system to power the DC bus, some controls, and minimal avionics. Also for some reason the FDR and CVR are powered only from the AC buses, and so would not have power in a two engine out scenario until the pilots manually started the APU and it came online. It also predates the requirement for said systems to have an independent backup battery.

    This means things are still consistent with a staggered double bird strike or with a single bird strike followed by the pilots shutting down the wrong engine as well as some of the more out there theory’s.

    Investigators might still be able to recover enough switch positions to figure out what happened in the air, but it’s going to be a hard investigation.

    The major takeaway and factor that turned this from a major incident into a catastrophic one however is still that putting the localizer on a concrete reinforced berm for typhoon resistance is a major safety hazard.

  • If Israel is trying to target Hamas, why by their own admission have the majority of the bombs and artillery systems fired been systems that lack the accuracy necessary to target a specific vehicle or even building?

    Why does the IDF refuse to send forces into these soposed tunnel networks in order to actually capture Hamas commanders for the intelligence necessary to actually target them?

    Why are the refugees constantly being pushed closer and closer to the Egyptian border when that is the ONLY part of Gaza that has ever needed to be secured in order to stop the flow of all Iranian weapons into Gaza?

    Why shut off power and water, actions which can only work to strengthen Hamas’s support among the civilian population?

    Why limit IDF support and protection to humanitarian aid convoys to such an extreme that even the US has had to resort to air power because it can’t get through Israeli territory?

    The definition of genocide does not and has never required that a force try and kill every last person of the targeted population, only that they try and expel or erase them from the population.

  • The Lancet report puts about 42.8 percent of the recoded killed being nineteen or under. Assuming that raitio has remained consistent, and using the twenty one thousand, five hundred and seven deaths recorded as of Dec 29th, that puts the number of dead kids at nine thousand two hundred and five.

    While it is more difficult to actually figure out how many Hamas Israel have actually gotten, given that a lot of the Israeli fire has been launched at buildings where Hamas broke in, lobed a RPG from a shoulder fired launcher, then drove off within a minute, or have been against refugee camps and other purely civilian targets, it’s unlikely that many actual terrorists more important than the now easily recureted cannon fodder have been successfully killed. Especially given that many of the ones involved in the all or nothing attack on Oct 7 never actually made it back to Gaza.

    Moreover, given that Israel has been more than happy to share names when it actually has them, and generally there haven’t been that many, putting a vague estimate at about a hundred or so isn’t that unreasonable.

    Even the best case Israeli numbers put it at less than one terrorist per kid, given their reluctance to back any of that up the amount of evidence they have since walked back, and how terrorist groups are organized in the first place, it is very unreasonable to use said estimate.

  • Thankfully most signs are that the PLA is targeting having a force capable of credible cross strait operations in 2027, so we still have at least three years. Taiwan, Japan, South Korea, and the US all know this and have been spending the last two plus years reshaping thier militaries to be capable of directly opposing such an act, and in doing so it is become pretty clear that any cross strait action is only going to end in a lot of CCP ships on the bottom and a good fiscal year for Lockheed Martin.

    In doing so it makes it vanishingly unlikely that it will actually move beyond posturing in the first place. Unlike in Ukraine where the West has committed to supporting and resupplying the victim, many of the Asia Pacific Nations are committed to providing active military operations in defense of Taiwan.

    That being said there is still to my knowledge no Asia Pacific equivalent to NATO Article 5 unfortunately, which may result in dangerous doubt in terms of credible deterrence, especially if the CCP believes it has friends that will quietly bow to it in Tokyo and Washington in 2027. For all of Trump’s shouting, most of his actual actions involvedo withdrawing the US from everything he could that China didn’t like.

    While still unlikely, credible deterrence still requires the Chinese Intelligence both believe and be good enough at handling bad news to accurately report that up the chain of command, and as the FSB demonstrated in Ukraine that’s not necessarily a given. If there are enough yes men, then things could get very bad indeed.

  • The NFT is only pseudonymous so long as the account can’t be tied back to an actual person, since most platforms already allow gifting of games to people’s accounts, it would be trivial to tie them back publicly.

    The same authority problems also apply to NFTs, does everyone agree to use the same chain and only that chain, if the chain is forked becuse the founders of etherium loose 15 percent of the entire currency on a obvious scam again which version of the NFTs hosted on it are valid? How to the platforms deal with someone scaming someone else by selling them the wrong version on a third party marketplace?

    If publishers can’t be bothered to sell their own games after a while, why would they want to sell someone else’s for free, and why would that incentive disappear if they use their own private API instead of a publicly accessible one?

  • I mean i’d rather register my license of XXX Hentai Boobmania with a govement office than make it permanently and irreversiblly publicly available for everyone to see.

    Again, if they can be bothered to host the game, I don’t see how a database that’s smaller than most modern AAA games is more likely to disappear. You could also forgo a central database in favor of each storefront hosting thier own, and just using a private API. More secure too, since it wouldn’t present an easily attack surface for hackers.

    The blockchain doesn’t need incentives to be slow and unwieldy when it takes hours to confirm a transaction, and a gas war can randomly delay things even more.

  • If the storefront goes bankrupt all that public ledger does is give you a dead link unless another storefront picks it up, but if they wanted to do that they could just as easily buy that database from the dying company anyway.

    Moreover why would anyone else have an incentive to pay the significant costs associated with hosting a game ownership was on a blockchain, and therefore could be sold independently without them receiving a cut?

  • It’s more of a stalemate, while technically every day Ukraine exists is a victory, ideally they’d be in a position to retake thier own land. Meanwhile the only long term possibility the Kremlin has been pursuing is expending vast quantities of men and material in hopes that Nato gets bored before they have to conscript from the cities and get overthrown.

    A well noted part of this campaign has been in attempts to foster misinformation and shake confidence in the ability of Ukraine to hold the line and eventually take back its land and people from the invading imperial power.

    If you are interested and have a spare hour, Perun’s recent piece on the political war is excellent as always.

    https://youtu.be/pIKiFAKMoi0?si=jyDupy7xxT-qjYxg